On September 28, Toncoin (TON) price retested $6 for the first time in over a month. However, the altcoin could not maintain this level, dropping to $5.40. Despite efforts to recover, TON continues to face significant challenges. This article highlights key levels to watch as the analysis indicates a potential further downturn.
According to the daily chart, Toncoin’s price is attempting to erase some losses. However, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) suggests that this could be challenging. The EMA evaluates bullish or bearish trends based on current price movement.
Currently, with TON’s price at $5.40, the 20 EMA (blue) and 50 EMA (yellow) are above the Toncoin price. Notably, the 50 EMA has crossed above the 20 EMA, forming what is known as a death cross. This indicates a bearish trend, suggesting the price might fall below $5 soon.
Following the recent decline, on-chain data revealed a surge in Toncoin's realized losses. Yesterday, holders incurred losses on 788,000 tokens. High levels of unrealized losses imply that investor confidence in a rebound is waning, and the lack of buying pressure could prevent the token from recovering its lost value. If this trend continues, TON’s price may keep declining.
BeInCrypto observed that TON has fallen below the $5.41 support level. This decline implies that bulls may no longer defend the token from dropping below $5. Additionally, resistance at $5.68 could hinder any potential rebound.
Considering the bearish technical setup, TON's price could drop to $4.89. In a worst-case scenario, the altcoin could decline to $4.63. However, if bulls manage to break the $5.68 resistance, a recovery to $6.69 or even $7.29 could occur.
