Fantom (FTM) Analysis: Over the past 30 days, Fantom (FTM) has experienced an impressive rally, increasing by 68% and igniting speculation about a potential return to $1. Yet, despite this significant growth, on-chain data suggests that the journey toward this milestone remains uncertain.
FTM last reached $1 six months ago. In this analysis, we will explore the challenges ahead and what investors should monitor closely.
On September 22, FTM’s price reached $0.71, supported by the formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern that confirmed the uptrend. However, as of now, the price stands at $0.69, indicating a delay in FTM's anticipated climb to $1.
According to data from IntoTheBlock, FTM holders have primarily contributed to this price decline. Notably, the Coins Holding Time, which reflects how long a cryptocurrency has been held without being sold, increased until October 4. This trend suggests strong confidence in the token’s short-term potential to rise. However, in the past four days, the Coins Holding Time for Fantom has decreased, hinting that holders have started to realize profits from the recent gains. If this selling pressure continues, it could prevent FTM from moving higher.
Another significant factor affecting Fantom's progress is its correlation with Bitcoin (BTC). IntoTheBlock's data reveals a 30-day correlation coefficient of 0.92 between BTC and FTM. This coefficient, which ranges from -1 to +1, indicates a strong directional movement, suggesting that FTM tends to move in sync with Bitcoin. Recently, as Bitcoin’s price fell from $64,000 to $62,383, FTM’s price is likely to follow in a similar direction due to this correlation.
On the daily chart, FTM’s price is approaching the supply zone at $0.73. Historically, whenever the altcoin reaches this level, it faces a pullback. For example, on May 10, the price peaked at $0.73 before declining to $0.64 shortly after. A similar pattern occurred on June 8, where FTM was rejected at this level. If this trend continues, the token’s price could drop to $0.60, with a pessimistic scenario potentially seeing FTM fall to $0.52.
However, if bulls aim to prevent further decline, they must push the token above the $0.73 resistance level. If successful, the FTM/USD pair might rise to $0.80 and ultimately towards $1 in the near term.
