As global markets respond to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin’s (BTC) anticipated bull run has been put on hold. Before Iran’s missile strike on Israel, the price of Bitcoin was over $64,000. Following the incident, it dropped to $60,350 as investors reacted with significant sell-offs.
This analysis examines how the ongoing conflict has affected Bitcoin’s price movements and market sentiment. According to Glassnode data, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index was at 61 early yesterday, reflecting a positive investor outlook. This index measures market sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100, where values close to zero indicate extreme fear, while those near 100 suggest greed.
Before the missile strike, this index indicated strong confidence in Bitcoin’s price rising above $64,000. However, it has since fallen to 39, signaling increased fear in the market and a potential pause in Bitcoin's bull run.
Amid negative sentiment, Bitcoin's price has dipped below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, currently at $62,617. This price point marks the average on-chain acquisition cost over the last 155 days. When Bitcoin is priced above this level, it typically signals a bullish trend. The current situation suggests that a move towards $80,000 may not occur in the short term.
From an on-chain perspective, the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) indicates that the price range between $63,510 and $65,323 is crucial for Bitcoin. The IOMAP data reveals that 2.15 million Bitcoin addresses hold 1.27 million BTC in this range, indicating strong support. In contrast, a drop to $59,813 seems plausible, as the minor support level is at $60,666.
Interestingly, 10x Research also identifies the $60,600 mark as minor resistance for BTC. Their recent report suggests that Bitcoin must surpass $66,000 to potentially reverse the current bearish trend.
