Bitcoin is facing potential downward pressure, with analysts suggesting it could fall below $60,000 due to escalating geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, noted that despite risks, this dip could present a buying opportunity for investors. He commented, "Risk concerns related to the Middle East seem destined to push bitcoin below $60,000 before the weekend, but positions like the $80,000 call options suggest the dip should be bought into."
Kendrick observed a slight shift in the U.S. presidential race odds between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. According to Polymarket, Trump's chances have increased by about 1%, while Harris's have dropped. Currently, Harris's likelihood of winning stands at 49%, with Trump's at 50%.
"This creates an interesting circularity for bitcoin," Kendrick explained. "Geopolitical concerns may push prices lower, yet these very concerns seem to increase Trump's odds, potentially improving bitcoin's post-election outlook." A victory by Trump is generally viewed as favorable for cryptocurrencies.
The bitcoin options market reflects medium-term optimism, with a notable increase in call option positions. Kendrick highlighted that the open interest for call options at an $80,000 strike price for the December expiry has jumped significantly, indicating trader confidence.
Kendrick emphasized that while bitcoin has not acted as a safe haven against geopolitical tensions, it remains a hedge against financial issues such as bank collapses and de-dollarization. He stated, "Gold is a geopolitical hedge. Bitcoin is a hedge against traditional finance issues."
As of the latest update, bitcoin's price has decreased by approximately 0.8% over the past 24 hours, sitting around $60,638.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not intended as legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.
