Historically, Ethereum's average returns have fallen short of Bitcoin's in October. However, analysts at QCP Capital have observed optimistic indicators suggesting that many derivatives traders believe Ether has the potential to break this trend of underperformance.
"Historically, October is a strong month for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 22.9% in eight out of the last nine years," analysts from QCP Capital noted. "Ethereum also tends to perform well, but its average return for October is approximately 5%," they added.
Despite the potential for Ethereum to lag behind Bitcoin this month, there are signs of optimism for Ether in the near term. "We observed a significant number of Ether October call options being purchased this morning," QCP Capital said, pointing to derivatives market indicators.
Ether call options with a $2,800 strike price, expiring on Oct. 11, have seen the highest trading volume in the last 24 hours. Notably, both the Oct. 11 and Oct. 18 expiries show a significantly lower number of put options.
This disparity indicates a bullish sentiment among many traders, betting that the price of Ether will rise above the $2,800 mark by the expiration date. The increased demand for these call options reflects growing near-term optimism for the digital asset.
Analysts from Bitfinex highlight that while Ethereum typically sees solid returns in the fourth quarter, the performance of the wider altcoin sector can vary. Historically, the first quarter is often the strongest for both Ethereum and the altcoin market, with the second quarter occasionally delivering strong results as well.
There are also indications of sustained optimism for Ethereum in the futures market. Data from Coinglass highlights that Ethereum's open interest-weighted funding rate has been trending positively since the broader risk asset sell-off triggered by the Bank of Japan's unexpected interest rate hike at the end of July.
Ethereum's open interest-weighted funding rate has remained positive since mid-September. This trend shows resilience in the face of market fluctuations.
The price of Ethereum increased by over 1.4% in the past 24 hours, trading at $2,638 at 07:49 a.m. ET. Bitcoin dominance is at 53.4%, while Ethereum dominance is at 13.4%, according to CoinGecko data.
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