Donald Trump has reached a significant milestone in the U.S. presidential election betting markets, with a favorable 53.8% chance of securing the Republican nomination on November 5. This marks the highest odds he has seen since Kamala Harris was nominated by the Democratic Party in early August.
In recent weeks, both candidates have been closely matched on Polymarket, an Ethereum-based platform for betting on future events. Trump regained the lead over Vice President Harris on October 4, and his odds have continued to improve since then.
Despite Trump’s rise in nomination odds, Harris is strongly favored to win the popular vote, holding a 72% likelihood according to separate market data.
Some experts, including Nate Silver, founder of 538 and advisor to Polymarket, argue that prediction markets provide a superior method for aggregating information because they involve real financial stakes from users.
With over $1.4 billion in trading volume on the election market, Polymarket has emerged as the leading platform for wagering on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. The largest user, known as 'Fredi9999', has placed more than $6 million on a Trump victory, leading to speculation that this individual may be Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has voiced support for Trump and described prediction markets as 'more accurate' than traditional polls.
Trump's odds received a boost following the publication of new polling data from Pennsylvania, a key swing state where Republican voter registrations have surpassed those of Democrats. Currently, bettors estimate a 55.5% chance that Pennsylvania will support Trump, while Democrats are favored in Michigan. The odds that Pennsylvania will be the election's tipping point stand at 33%.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.
